VIDEO: Labor Markets Press Conference, July 28, 2020

On July 28, 2020, Nicholas Garbis of One Model and Cary Sparrow of Greenwich.HR delivered a press conference from the floor of the old Minneapolis Grain Exchange to discuss emerging trends in the US labor markets based on daily job posting data in the Covid Job Impacts website.

Below is an excerpt of some of the main points, followed by a link to the video of the event.

"Next Friday, August 7th, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the July jobs report. (Link to latest release here.)

While there’s an ongoing debate regarding what will be in the July report, our recent analysis demonstrates that despite the dramatic increases in Covid-19 infections in many states over the month of July, the positive trends in the job market in many industries have continued through today.

As a quick summary:

• • The June jobs report was quite positive -- with a gain of 4.8 million jobs driven by big gains in Retail and Hospitality, the unemployment rate dropped 2.2% to 11.1%.
    
    
  • Moving into July, the same two industries continued their upward trend -- and they were joined by others: Healthcare, Wholesale, and Construction.
    
    
  • Our projection is that next week’s jobs report will be very strong -- much stronger than what you might expect given the gloom and doom in the news.
    
    
  • Getting more specific, we project an increase in employment of about 6.0 million, which will drop the unemployment rate to around 9%, possibly below 9%.
    
    
  • While we are optimistic for the July numbers, we are very cautious about what will happen in August. There is certainly continued momentum, but a change in state policies could easily reverse the gains."
    
    Cary and Nicholas proceeded to highlight various industries' results and then answer questions from the online audience.

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